Segment

Time

1. Collect journals

1. Hand out "solve for accuracy rate" derivation.
2. Ask, "Is this a definite result, like the board can now rest assured that at any time over the next n years, that it will have wrongly punished exactly 1% of the accused when it bases its decisions on this new test? [That is, where is the probabilistic situation?]
3. Tell them to study this handout and ask questions tomorrow. (I’m assuming they studied yesterday’s handout.)
4. Quiz (big quiz) on Friday.

1. Simulate the scenario (again):
1. Put students in pairs. One is Michael, the other is Warden.
2. Give each pair of students 3 pieces of paper, labeled "Michael", "John", and "Quincy". Have them simulate the scenario – assuming Warden picks prisoner BEFORE Michael asks.
2. What is the probabilistic situation? What is the process that is being repeated?a
3. Change the assumptions:
1. Have them simulate the scenario – assuming Warden picks prisoner AFTER Michael asks.
4. Analyze it using tree diagrams (emphasize importance of BEING CLEAR ON THE PROCESS AND REFLECTING IT IN YOUR DIAGRAM)